Animal Conservation – 2022 -Occupancy models reveal potential of conservation prioritization for Central American jaguars

A central task in conservation planning is identifying and
prioritizing key areas for protection of endangered species
and preservation of landscape connectivity. This endeavour
requires a thorough understanding of the drivers of species
presence, habitat associations and avoidance mechanisms.
For species living in degraded landscapes and at high risk of

extinction, conservation strategies must be based on inte-
grated assessments across political boundaries, spatial scales

and species’ entire ranges (Wikramanayake et al., 2004;
Rabinowitz & Zeller, 2010). This is particularly relevant for
broadly distributed species that encompass a wide range of
habitat types and land uses, such as some charismatic large
carnivores, like the jaguar (Panthera onca).
Habitat suitability models can contribute to the prioritization

of protected areas and support conservation planning for sev-
eral species (Cabeza et al., 2004; Li et al., 2020; Mukherjee

et al., 2020). These models relate species occurrence data to
environmental conditions, using derived response curves that
best reflect the set of ecological requirements of the species of
concern (Guisan et al., 2017). However, regional and globally

comprehensive species occurrence datasets are scarce, and pub-
licly available spatial data are often heterogeneous, discontinu-
ous across species ranges, lack standardized study designs and

are strongly biased temporally and spatially (Boitani
et al., 2011; Rondinini et al., 2011). These limitations make
the prioritization of conservation areas at the appropriate scales
challenging (Ferrier, 2002).
The jaguar is a near threatened apex predator in the tropical
Americas (Quigley et al., 2017), whose populations are
decreasing and which has been subjected to much research on
their habitat relationships. The species relies mainly on habitats
with forest cover, water and a sufficient prey base (Sanderson
et al., 2002b), although it can tolerate a variety of conditions

across their geographic range (Morato et al., 2018). Most stud-
ies of jaguar habitat use to date have been conducted at local

scales (Foster et al., 2010; Zeller et al., 2011; Rabelo
et al., 2019), except some relying heavily on either input from
experts or interviews to local people (Rabinowitz & Zeller,
2010; Jȩdrzejewski et al., 2018; Petracca et al., 2018), or with
very low representation of Central American data (Thompson
et al., 2021). Extrapolating local and expert-witness studies to
larger areas may result in spurious inferences (e.g. generalizing
patterns that may be true only locally, under unique conditions),
due to a lack of standardized monitoring schemes and analysis,
use of different environmental predictors, and most importantly,
because patterns of jaguar resource selection vary across their
geographic range (Morato et al., 2018).

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